Fla.’s Housing Market: Median Price, New Listings Rise in July
ORLANDO, Fla. – In July, Florida’s housing market reported higher median prices, more new listings and a rise in all-cash sales compared to a year ago, according to Florida Realtors® latest housing data.
Market Shows Signs of Normalcy on the Horizon
July's housing numbers show signs that the state's residential real estate market may be returning to normal. While selling remains red-hot, slight inventory growth may lead to some sales slowing.
“In a positive sign for Florida’s housing market, new listings rose year-over-year in July for both single-family homes, up 12.1%, and for condo-townhouse properties, up 4.6%,” says 2021 Florida Realtors President Cheryl Lambert, broker-owner with Only Way Realty Citrus in Inverness. “Our economic experts also report that active listings (inventory) of single-family homes continued to rise throughout July (from its lowest level), which eventually could be good news for buyers who have been sidelined by the shortage of homes for sale. However, any rebound in inventory is going to be slow, and it will take a long while to get back to the levels we had pre-pandemic.”
Closed sales of single-family homes statewide in July totaled 30,740, a slight decrease of 2.1% year-over-year, while existing condo-townhouse sales totaled 13,481, up 21.1% over July 2020. Closed sales may occur from 30- to 90-plus days after sales contracts are written.
The statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes in July was $355,000, up 20.3% from the previous year, according to data from Florida Realtors Research Department in partnership with local Realtor boards/associations. Last month’s statewide median price for condo-townhouse units was $253,000, up 20.5% over the year-ago figure. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.
According to Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor, the data revealed signs that the state’s housing market is heading on a steady path toward normalcy, at least in some respects.
“The 2.1% drop in closed single-family home sales marks the first time that sales in this category have been down year-over-year at the statewide level since May of 2020, near the beginning of the pandemic,” he says. “But remember, last year’s spring buying season was effectively postponed until the summer and fall by the pandemic, so the second half of 2020 ended up being the strongest second half for sales in at least 15 years. It’s not too surprising if sales counts over the next few months fail to surpass their totals from one year ago.
“However, looking at 2019 – the last full year of anything resembling a normal market due to COVID-19 – we find that July 2021 single-family home sales were over 9% higher compared to July 2019.”
Dr. O’Connor notes that, in a continuing trend, the share of closed sales that were all-cash purchases rose in July compared to the previous year. In July, single-family existing home sales paid in all cash increased by 49.9% year-over-year, while all-cash sales of condo-townhouse units rose by 44%.
On the supply side of the market, inventory (active listings) remained extremely tight in July. Single-family existing homes continued at a very low 1.2-months’ supply while condo-townhouse inventory was at a 1.8-months’ supply.
According to Freddie Mac, the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.87% in July 2021, down from the 3.02% averaged during the same month a year earlier.
To see the full statewide housing activity reports, go to the Florida Realtors’ Newsroom and look under Latest Releases or download the July 2021 data report PDFs under Market Data on the site.
© 2021 Florida Realtors®
Fla.’s Housing Market: Median Prices, New Listings Up in August
August Market Report: It's Still a Seller's Market — For Now
August was another strong month for Florida's real estate market, with single-family home sales holding steady and condos/townhomes remaining the hotter segment.
ORLANDO, Fla. – Florida’s housing market reported higher median prices, more new listings and a rise in all-cash sales in August compared to a year ago, according to Florida Realtors® latest housing data.
“The data shows that new listings continue to increase, which is hopeful news for buyers who may have been waiting to see more for-sale inventory come on the market,” says 2021 Florida Realtors President Cheryl Lambert, broker-owner with Only Way Realty Citrus in Inverness. “New listings for single-family homes in August rose 10.6% year-over-year, while new listings for condo-townhouse properties increased 1.4%. Still, it’s likely to take some time before inventory levels rebuild.”
Closed sales of single-family homes statewide in August totaled 29,550, up slightly (0.2%) year-over-year, while existing condo-townhouse sales totaled 12,550, up 13.1% over August 2020. Closed sales may occur from 30- to 90-plus days after sales contracts are written.
The statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes last month was $354,000, up 18% from the previous year, according to data from Florida Realtors Research Department in partnership with local Realtor boards/associations. Last month’s statewide median price for condo-townhouse units was $252,500, up 16.1% over August 2020. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.
Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor notes that while closed sales of single-family homes were up by only a fraction of a percentage point compared to a year ago, “that increase remains impressive given the rate at which homes were selling at this time last year. The market for condos and townhouses, however, remains the hotter market for now.”
In a continuing trend, the share of closed sales that were all-cash purchases rose last month compared to the previous year. In August, single-family existing home sales paid in all cash increased by 48.3% year-over-year, while all-cash sales of condo-townhouse units rose by 32.9%.
On the supply side of the market, inventory (active listings) remained constrained in August.
“Inventory levels at the end of August were not much different than they were at the end of July, but are still well below where they were a year ago,” Dr. O’Connor says. “Active listings (inventory) of single-family homes were down 32.4% year-over-year, while active listings of condos and townhouses were down 52.4%.”
Single-family existing homes continued at a very low 1.3-months’ supply in August, while condo-townhouse inventory was at a 1.7-months’ supply.
According to Freddie Mac, the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.84% in August 2021, down from the 2.94% averaged during the same month a year earlier.
To see the full statewide housing activity reports, go to Florida Realtors Tools and Resources. Realtors also have access to local market data (password protected) through Florida Realtors SunStats resource.
© 2021 Florida Realtors®
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Florida real estate may be red hot right now, but what about in the next couple of years? While it’s difficult to make predictive statements, it’s still possible to use data and trends to paint a picture of what we expect to see moving forward.
So before you make a huge purchase, ensure you’re well-informed about the current market conditions as well as future predictions. We here at Vaster Capital have done all the hard work for you by compiling data and research into this guide to the Florida real estate market for 2021 and 2022.
1. People Will Keep Moving to Florida
Florida has long been a popular state to move to, but the COVID-19 pandemic has made the sunny state even more appealing as many can now work from home permanently. Over the past 35 years, the state has had an average of 777 domestic migrants per day. Recently, that number has increased to almost 1,000 -- with 950 more people moving to the state each day. Many of these new Florida residents come from northern states--like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Illinois--in search of fairer weather. Additionally, Florida doesn’t have a state income tax or estate tax.
2. Interest Rates Will Remain Low...for Now
Florida isn’t the only place that has experienced a hot real estate market. In fact, this trend has been seen all across the country due to meager interest rates that improve buyers’ purchasing power. The Federal Reserve did this because of the poor economic conditions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. But even as economic outlooks improve, the Federal Reserve plans to keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future -- at least until 2023. For this reason, buyers will be able to enjoy interest rates around 3% that will motivate them to buy property.
3. Demand Will Continue to Outpace Supply
Right now, property demand is higher than supply. There are several reasons why this is happening. First of all, Millennials -- a generation of more than 72.1 million -- are entering the housing market for the first time. Many have saved enough for a down payment and want to take advantage of low interest rates. Secondly, existing homeowners will become more reluctant to sell, knowing that competition will be stiff from fellow buyers. Finally, pandemic-related supply chain issues that have led to a shortage of new construction homes can usually help make up some of the gaps between supply and demand.
4. The Popularity of New Construction Homes Will Grow
As we move away from the pandemic, supply and labor issues will begin to resolve and the construction of new homes will pick up to meet demand. In March 2021, homebuilding increased by 19.4% for a total of 1.74 million units -- representing the largest month-over-month gain since 1990 and the highest overall level since 2006.
According to Freddie Mac, the construction industry has been underbuilding for at least the last decade due to the 2008 financial crisis. That led to a housing crisis in its own right. Today, the housing market is short more than 4 million units. While this gap won’t close overnight, builders are taking steps to improve it.
5. Multifamily Real Estate Will Be Extremely Lucrative
While the single-family market has seen a lot of growth over the past year, multifamily will be highly lucrative as we move forward. Renters will become more financially stable as we move away from the pandemic economy and will look to rent something on their own. Vacancy levels will remain low and a 6% increase in net effective rents is predicted for the next year -- making it a great time to invest in multifamily real estate.
6. Vacation Rentals Will Be More Popular Than Ever
Sick of being stuck at home, people are anxious to travel and experience a change of scenery. As a result, vacation rentals will become more popular than ever. Vacation rental revenue in the U.S. is projected to exceed $88 billion by 2023 -- a number that exceeds 2019’s global revenue. Young people, especially Millennials, are more likely to book vacation rentals and are looking for scenic and idyllic locations for a future getaway instead of urban locations.
7. Property Prices and Rents Will Continue to Rise
High demand and low interest rates will lead to increased property prices and rents for the foreseeable future. Freddie Mac predicts that home prices across the country will rise by 6.6% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022. Even as the market begins to adjust to post-pandemic life, interest rates will remain affordable, and more Millennials will begin to enter the market -- contributing to a steady increase in prices across the board.
8. Areas Across the State Will See Rapid Growth
Florida is such a large and diverse state that it’s often difficult to talk about its real estate market as a whole without separating it into different areas. For instance, highly populated areas in South Florida will have a different type of market than rural areas in Central Florida. To get the best information regarding the future of Florida’s real estate market for the near future, we need to break down some of the different markets across the state:
So what does the future look like for the South Florida real estate market? Well, you should expect more of the same. According to data from Zillow, properties in the South Florida counties of Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade are overvalued by more than 11%. In the same three counties, single-family home sales increased by 28.7% in March 2021, with the median sales price also increasing by 20.4% to $457,500.
Although many areas around the country, including South Florida, saw a dip in demand for condos and smaller spaces during the pandemic, these sales are now starting to rebound. Condo and townhome sales in South Florida increased by a whopping 49.8% with the median sales price increasing by 15.2% to $242,000. This trend is likely a direct result of the rising costs of single-family homes in the area -- putting them out of reach for many buyers with more modest budgets.
While the Central Florida real estate market around Orlando isn’t quite as active as South Florida, buyers and sellers have seen many changes. For starters, inventory has hit an all-time low -- in contrast to high demand from buyers. April 2021 inventory hit a record low that hasn’t been seen since at least 1995. As a result of low supply and high demand, the median sales price in the area increased by 3.5% from March 2021 and 11.9% from a year prior to $295,000.
The Tampa area in West Florida has long been considered a relatively affordable real estate market -- making it a great place for first-time homebuyers. However, as more and more people look to take advantage of this, it becomes a more challenging environment. In March 2021, the median sales price of a single-family home in the West Florida counties of Pinellas, Pasco, Hillsborough, and Hernando was $300,000 -- a 17.6% increase from $255,000 last March.
Like West Florida, Northeast Florida has generally enjoyed more affordable home prices that have made the area a target for new buyers looking to get a good deal on a property. In April, the median sales price in the Northeast Florida counties of Duval, St. Johns, Clay, and Putnam counties was $284,941 -- showing a 14.1% increase from a year prior. Unlike other areas that are seeing a slowdown in listings, North Florida saw a total of 4,030 listings in April -- up from 3,771 in March and 3,052 in February.
We see a similar trend in the Florida Panhandle. Relatively affordable prices have recently skyrocketed due to high demand and low supply. In the Greater Pensacola area, the average residential sales price was $306,547 in April 2021 -- showing a 23.2% increase from the year before. Condos are trendy and popular in this beachy area, with 80% more units sold in the Destin area than in 2020, with an average price increase of 21% overall.
Final Thoughts on the Florida Real Estate Market
In such a competitive market, minor issues could cause you to lose out on a property. One common issue is financing, as traditional loans can take time and work to secure.
If you want a sale to go through as fast as possible, you may want to consider alternative financing options like bridge loans that are a quick and easy way to get to the closing table while you wait to secure permanent financing. For more information about bridge loans and the South Florida real estate market, reach out to the experts at Vaster Capital.
Florida's home sales, median prices, new listings up in 2Q 2021
by: Marla Martin
Media Relations and Communications Manager, FloridaRealtors®
Florida’s housing market continued to show strong gains in 2Q 2021, with more closed sales, rising median prices and more new listings compared to 2Q 2020, according to the latest housing data from Florida Realtors. Florida’s lockdown order due to the COVID-19 pandemic took effect April 1, 2020.
“Florida usually has a very strong spring homebuying season, but due to the pandemic, last year was clearly a major exception to the rule,” said Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor. “This year, though, we were back in business – and then some. Second quarter closed sales of existing single-family homes increased by 43.3% year-over-year (totaling 98,414), and were up nearly 16% compared to the 2Q 2019. Sales growth in the condo and townhouse resale market was even stronger, rising 117% (a total of 48,976 sales) compared to last year and up by almost 44% compared to two years ago.”
Closed sales typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.
The statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes in 2Q 2020 was $345,000, up 24.3% from the same time a year ago, according to data from Florida Realtors Research department in partnership with local Realtor boards/associations. The statewide median price for condo-townhouse properties during the quarter was $250,000, up 20.8% over the year-ago figure. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.
O’Connor said, “Florida home prices always tend to rise the most during the first half of the year, but even taking that into consideration, price growth this year has still been well in excess of recent norms. Falling mortgage rates last year allowed buyers to make bids on higher-priced homes. The competition this created among buyers is what’s driven prices up so much.”
However, so far this year, mortgage rates – while still low – are no longer falling, he noted.
“This will have the gradual effect of pricing more prospective buyers out of the market, which will reduce the level of competition until price growth falls back to a more normal pace,” he said. “This transition will also be aided by recent increases in the number of homes being listed for resale. New listings of single-family homes in 2Q 2021 were up 24.2% vs. a year ago and over 8% compared to 2019. In the condo and townhouse category, new listings were up 27% compared to 2020 and over 15% compared to 2019.”
In 2Q 2021, the median time to a contract (the midpoint of the number of days it took for a property to receive a sales contract during that time) was nine days for single-family homes and 20 days for condo-townhouse properties.
Inventory was at a 1.1-months’ supply in the first quarter for single-family homes and at a 1.7-months’ supply for condo-townhouse properties, according to Florida Realtors.
According to Freddie Mac, the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.0% for 2Q 2021, down from the 3.23% average recorded during the same quarter a year earlier.
To see the full statewide housing activity reports, go to Florida Realtors Newsroom at http://floridarealtors.org/newsroom and look under Latest Releases, or download the 2Q 2021 data report PDFs under Market Data at: http://floridarealtors.org/newsroom/market-data.
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